The recent falls in Stock Markets and especially the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 have brought Peter Schiff and his Fan Club out in force, and frankly we shake our heads in disbelief.
Even some of our own supporters, listeners and subscribers are producing videos and making comments saying Peter Schiff is being proven right yet again and even though he was wrong for a time – so what! He is right now.
OK let’s address this Peter Schiff phenomenon as bluntly as we can with-out being too insulting as its Christmas after all.
Peter Schiff did call the 2008 Economic collapse – absolutely right – all credit to him – ah hang on wait a minute. Everyone refers to his interviews in 2007/2008 and say – he’s a guru. But let’s not forget – and this is where the internet is useful so you can do your own research without necessarily believing us- Schiff was making such calls as far back as 2002 and in some cases even earlier.
Don’t believe us? Well in 2002 when the Nasdaq fell from a peak of 5,000 and stood at 1400 Schiff said its going to fall to and possibly below 500 anytime soon. No, it didn’t – it fell to 1200 and then rose to a peak in August of this year to just above 8,000 and is now standing at a little over 6,300.
At the same time in 2002, the Dow peaked at 9,000 and was beginning to fall and Schiff said that it would collapse to 4,000 or lower – nope it didn’t it went to a little over 7,000 and then again peaked this year just shy of 27,000 and currently stands at just above 22,400.
So for at least 5 years ‘Dr Doom’ as he was appropriately nicknamed was wrong. So much so, that when the collapse did eventually occur, we still have to remind you that despite this collapse, neither the Dow nor the Nasdaq fell to anything like the levels he predicted in 2002.
In November 2008 a Hedge Fund manager by the name of Todd Sullivan produced an article which instead of heaping praise on this new well publicised financial oracle – actually said what he really thought:
“Now, had you listened to Peter in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 or even 3/4 of 2007, you lost your shirt. Had you placed bets based on Schiff’s market calls, you lost everything you wagered…Bottom line? Had you listened to Mr. Schiff at anytime before Oct. 2007, you lost…big. To those who did, there is little consolation in the praise being heaped on him today…….Schiff should not be getting the praise he is getting today for being “so right” after saying the same thing and being “so wrong” for the previous 5 years.”
So he predicted the crash 5 years before it happened, quite possibly causing his followers, or disciples as he had taken on a God Like persona at the time- to lose goodness knows how much of their wealth from believing in him and his predictions during that period – but ok – we can all make a mistake in timing can’t we he was right in the end.
However, this wasn’t just one mistake. Listen on.
Since then many of Mr. Schiff’s calls have been wrong. In 2008 Schiff predicted gold would hit $2,000 by 2009 and $5,000 by 2013. Well actually it peaked at $1900 in 2011 and has come down ever since to its current level of $1260. In 2009 Mr. Schiff also stated “Oil prices had a pretty big run and might not make more headway by the end of the year. But we could see $150 to $200 next year”. Oil never came close to $150.00 to $200.00 a barrel, in fact, in 2010 oil fell in price with an average price in the mid-$70’s and currently stands at $45 – $53 depending upon whether you are talking about Brent Crude or WTI.
OK he was wrong on this but everyone is allowed a second or third mistake – right?
Well what about these from a July 2011, interview. Here are his thoughts on the dollar,
“As soon as the world starts to focus on the dollar, we’re going to be hitting new lows. By the fall I think the dollar will be hitting record lows against the Euro.”
On gold, Schiff had this to say, “Well I’m surprised gold is as cheap as it is given all of the money we’ve already printed and the money we’re threatening to print. Over $10,000 GOLD could happen, there’s no floor on the dollar, so there’s no ceiling to gold”.
OK we all know that neither of these occurred, but hey ho 4 or 5 mistakes is not bad Right?
Well after this he was seen on CNBC predicting that the Federal Reserve will increase the quantitative easing program, not taper or end it. “They’re going to have to do 100, 115, 125 (billion dollars a month). When the market comes to terms with that it’s going to be a whole different ballgame……. “Right now, the Fed has to maintain the illusion that there’s a method to their madness.”
His reasoning for the increase in quantitative easing was that the economy is being propped up by the Federal Reserve’s easy money policy. To keep the economy going the Fed will have to accelerate their buying, not decrease it. Nope wrong again, they did taper it and began raising interest rates.
But hey 7 serious mistakes what’s that between friends?
When we came on the scene in 2015 Schiff had been saying that there was no-way the FED could raise interest rates – it would be impossible – a position he held for almost 2 years until it became clear that he was wrong at least 5 times and then he started to change his tune from; ‘rates cannot rise’ to ‘its stupid for the FED to rasie them’ as it will cause the collapse he has been predicting for the last 7 – 10 years. So now we have 8 -12 mistakes – well he is a Financial God – you know he was right in 2008 eventually and he will be right again soon so 12-13 mistakes – its forgivable isn’t it?
So for almost 10 years now Mr. Schiff has been proclaiming the American economy was on the verge of collapse, the dollar was going to have a massive decline, and that gold and other commodities were going to skyrocket. For most of those ten years he has been wrong.
However, this past week we have seen stockmarkets tumble. The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 and of course other world markets are down.
Still though, higher than they were a few years ago, but down nonetheless and out come all of the Schiff supporters and disciples heralding he is right, he predicted this, the end of the financial system is upon us – ‘ALL HAIL – the Messiah has risen again.’
Well hold your horses ‘ye disciples of Doom’ – the dollar index is still above 96.7, positive growth is still predicted for next year and markets are still higher than they were when Trump came to the Whitehouse and gold and silver though strengthening a little are still below $1300 and $15 respectively; and even if they reach those figures it’s still a miserly level compared to 2016 and 2017.
But lets us tell you what has affected us most, one of our subscribers, yes one of our subscribers stated – we are paraphrasing slightly – “OK Schiff has been wrong about gold but its just timing but as long as you haven’t sold it doesn’t matter – it will be a good investment in the end”.
Really that is not the right attitude my friend. For It suggests:
So, let’s completely ignore all those people who bought gold at $1900, $1800, $1700, $1600, $1500, $1400, during the past 7 – 8 years and have had to liquidate their holdings because they needed the money – believing that they were going to make a profit any time soon.
It suggests, Let’s ignore the opportunities that those and other people could have taken advantage of in the equity markets since 2008 but did not do so in the belief that Schiff was right and imminent collapse was around the corner.
It suggests, Let’s ignore those who got rid of their dollar investments and put them into other currencies because of the ‘imminent dollar collapse.’
Let us finally not ignore the fact that generally recessions do tend to occur on average every 7 -10 years and you do not have to be a financial guru to know this, and you should amend your investment strategies accordingly or at least become more cautious.
Our message is simple – yes Peter Schiff will eventually be right – as we shall be right in predicting the end of human life one day – it will happen – but unfortunately, none of us will be around for us to take the credit.
Yes, we predict a meteor will eventually strike the earth and destroy a country or continent and again we are confident we will be right one day, but are unlikely to be around to take the credit.
The great thing about recessions is that we can predict them today and know that as long as we live for another 10 years or so, we will be around to take the credit.
But will our subscribers and followers be as generous as the Schiff Sect are to their Leader? Let’s hope so.
So is the market correcting – yes it is, but its still higher than it was a year or so ago. Will we have a dollar collapse yes, we probably will, but not now and not yet – other currencies will fail first. What do we foresee then for the near future – our answer is simple – lower growth – and the danger of a world recession – but much of that is determined by the policies and actions of world Leaders and for now also on the impulsiveness or otherwise of President Trump. Politics does matter.
So, to those who herald the genius of Peter Schiff, we say you are trumpeting the achievements of a forecaster who has been more wrong than right and on multiple occasions. So why would you promote someone like this? We have come up with three possible reasons:
- You are unable to think for yourself so its easier to quote someone else.
- You have an inherent need to worship another human being whether he or she is right or wrong.
- And we hope its not this, You have an agenda to pump precious metals and once again– either intentionally or not to persuade people to go all in
So, beware, and take this message home with you and please never forget it;
‘Pumping a Pumper is akin to a study in Onanism.’
Merry Christmas to you all whether you agree with us or not – and we wish you and even Peter Schiff a Prosperous 2019.