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Today is Saturday 1st December 2018 and we are providing our gold and silver weekly update for the week ending 30th November.
Gold fell $1 last week from $1,223 to $1,222 having hit a high of $1,227 and a low of $1,211. In sterling terms gold finished the week at £958 that’s up £4 and in Euros it closed at 1,079 Euros that’s up 1 Euros on the week.
Silver fell 12 cents from $14.29 to $14.17 having hit a high of $14.43 and a low of $14.06. In sterling terms, it closed at £11.11 that’s down 4 pence and in Euros it closed at 12.52 euros that’s down 0.08 euros.
The Gold to Silver Ratio rose from 85.6:1 to 86.2:1
The Dow Jones closed on Friday at 25,538 up 199 points on the day and up 1,253 points on the week, and the NASDAQ closed at 7,330 up 57 points on the day and up 392 points on the week and the S&P 500 closed at 2,760 up 22 points on the day and up 128 points on the week. All indices more than reversing their previous week’s fall.
Brent Crude rose 66 cents from $58.80 to $59.46 and US Light Crude rose 51 cents from $50.42 to $50.93
The dollar index stands at 97.27 that’s up 0.36 on the week.
We ended last week’s video with the words : “A number of conditions are in place to see gold and silver rise, yet those opposing conditions are dominating and frankly surplus monies are going into the US dollar even when stock-markets take a slight hammering. Will this trend continue? We think so for a while. It’s also worth noting that traditionally gold and silver prices tend to fall in late November, December and whilst this is not cast in stone, there is little reason to suggest why this may not be so again this year.”
Well admittedly this past week has seen little change save the momentum slightly to the downside. However, both the highs and lows for gold and silver in US dollar terms were lower than the previous week and this should be noted and followed over the next few weeks.
Last week gold had a slight roller coaster ride with prices hitting week’s lows on Wednesday only to strongly recover again on Jerome Powell’s (The FED Chair’s) rather dovish statement that rates were ‘close to neutral’. However, Friday we could see investors re-investing in the dollar ahead of the G20 meeting this weekend particularly the important trade talks between President Trump and China’s President Xi.
Technical traders particularly using daily swing charts can see some upside if the gold prices exceeds $1227 topping out at or around $1,236 and downside if it falls below current levels to around $1,213. Frankly this is only of use to technical traders dealing in reasonable amounts. For the majority of us who are buying physical, the message is that perhaps there is going to be little serious movement from current levels, though our focus is a little more down than up, especially since the FED is still potentially determined to raise rates in December and this is not yet factored in.
The COT report shows Producers twice short than long, swap dealers 50% more long than short, and managed money almost twice short than long, the latter having reduced their long position and increased their short positions.
Silver proved weaker last week than gold. It started once again to head down towards that critical floor of $14 and any further dollar strengthening will certainly see it fall below that figure. On the upside we have resistance at $14.50 and phenomenal resistance at $15.
So all of those youtubers who keep telling you its about to rise significantly, frankly they can just be ignored – short of the dollar collapsing, there is absolutely no fundamental reason for that to happen. It is solely a dollar play – nothing is happening Industrially to prefer silver above current consumption levels and so for those who want to see silver going above $16 or $17 this year – you had better start taking out your prayer mats as its not going to happen and anyone who tells you differently is either financially illiterate or is trying to deceive you.
The COT report for silver is showing Producers holding 2.5 times more shorts than long, Swap dealers holding long vs short on a 3:2 basis and Managed money being 80% more short than long.
So, let’s take a look at the economic news to be announced this coming week:
• On Monday we have the Markit Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Index for November
• On Tuesday Motor vehicle sales
• On Wednesday Q3 productivity figures plus Markit services PMI and ISM Non manufacturing Index
• Thursday, we have the trade deficit figures for October so we shall see how well President Trumps tariff policy is panning out
• and on Friday the all-important Nonfarm payrolls for November plus Consumer sentiment index for Nov and Consumer Credit figures for October.